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After 2007, countries that cut their policy interest rates close to zero turned, among other policies, to forward guidance. We estimate a two-country model of the U.S. and Canada to quantify how unexpected changes in U.S. forward guidance affected Canada. Expansionary U.S. forward guidance shocks, like conventional policy shocks, are beggar-thy-neighbor and depress Canadian output, but by twice as much as conventional shocks. We find that the effect of U.S. forward guidance shocks on Canadian output, unlike conventional policy shocks, depends on the state of U.S. demand and can be five times smaller when U.S. demand is weak.
Monetary policy. --- Monetary management --- Economic policy --- Currency boards --- Money supply --- Banks and Banking --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Monetary Policy --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Externalities --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Monetary economics --- Banking --- Monetary expansion --- Central bank policy rate --- Spillovers --- Consumption --- Monetary policy --- Financial services --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- Prices --- National accounts --- Interest rates --- International finance --- Economics --- United States
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Expanding insurance coverage could, by insulating patients from having to pay full cost, encourage the utilization of arguably unnecessary medical services. It could also eliminate (or at least diminish) the need for emergency services through increasing access to preventive care. Using publicly available data from New York City for the period 2013-2016, we explore the effect of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) on the volume and composition of ambulance dispatches. Consistent with the argument that expanding insurance coverage encourages the utilization of unnecessary medical services, we find that, as compared to dispatches for more severe injuries, dispatches for minor injuries rose sharply after the implementation of the ACA. By contrast, dispatches for pre-labor pregnancy complications decreased as compared to dispatches for women in labor.
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International Spillovers of Forward Guidance Shocks.
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